Many questions whether Russia still has the upper hand militarily, as Ukraine has moved from being defensive to “sometimes counter-attacking” and regaining control of some areas.
Observers said that the intensity of fierce fighting in the past month has caused both sides to increasingly run out of ammunition and other military supplies.
The Guardian newspaper on March 22 quoted Ukrainian military commanders as asserting that if they do not receive more supplies, Russian forces fighting will only have enough food, fuel, and ammunition. In 3 days.
Meanwhile, according to the British newspaper The Times, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told friends last week that the Ukrainian army now has only two weeks left before using up all its anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. Western aid.
According to experts, it is currently difficult to verify the above information. “Logistics issues are difficult to assess because both sides keep information private for fear of compromising operational safety” said Nick Reynolds, a land warfare expert at the Rusi Institute. explain.
As for Ukraine, there is a particular concern that its forces are about to run out of Western-supplied weapons that have helped them knock out Russia’s vast array of planes and tanks. Kyiv has called for many additional weapons before the NATO summit on March 24. To date, Britain has committed to delivering 5,000 more missiles to the Eastern European country to deal with Russian troops.
In contrast, British and American intelligence showed clear signs that Russian forces were facing severe logistical constraints in Ukraine, forcing them to rethink their strategy of encircling Kyiv and Kharkiv., while simultaneously attacking from the south and east.
Western officials believe that the Russian military has lost the ability to launch multiple attacks at once, partly because of logistical challenges, but also partly because of the number of casualties they are suffering, estimated at between 7,000 to 10,000 soldiers. Analysts say that Russian forces are now focused on trying to capture Mariupol, a strategic port city in the east of the neighboring country, through intense and prolonged bombardment.
The extent of Russia’s difficulty is expected to be clear in the actual situation in the Irpin area, northwest of the capital Kyiv, which has seen some of the bloodiest fightings since the beginning of the war.
“If initial reports of a Ukrainian counter-offensive in Irpin are correct, this will be a key sign that Russia’s supply problems along the offensive toward Kyiv remain unresolved., although the number of casualties and poor coordination may also play a role” commented Mr. Reynolds.
However, the popular opinion among analysts is that the advantage still belongs to the Russian army. “On the whole, Russia still maintains significant material and personnel reserves to serve the operation” an unnamed Western source emphasized. But supply lines are complicated for some of Russia’s combat forces, especially those dispatched from the country’s far easternmost regions.
Ukraine’s problem is considered more serious. The country’s arms industry is already much smaller than Russia’s, and many industrial areas in the country’s east have been ravaged by war.
In terms of most key military assets, Kyiv is now completely dependent on a constant supply of supplies from the West to counter the Russian army. However, the rate of use and consumption of such advanced weapons in war was much faster than their production.
Most observers agree that, in terms of weapons and ammunition, the longer the war lasts, the greater Russia’s advantage, if it will continue to spend large and accept casualties.
Further developments in the conflict will provide a simple answer to this question.