Gasoline prices in Vietnam are currently lower than in the world, so they may continue to increase sharply soon.
According to expert Michael Kokalari (Chief Economist of VinaCapital Group), the global oil price has increased by nearly 40% since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and increased by 70% over the same period in the last year.
In fact, the world oil prices reached over 130 USD/barrel last week.
Michael Kokalari also said that the price of gasoline in Vietnam has increased by more than 20% since the beginning of this year. Gasoline prices in Vietnam do not fluctuate immediately according to world oil prices. Therefore, if the world oil price continues to increase, it is likely that the price of gasoline in Vietnam will increase by 30% in the next months.
Vietnamese people rush to buy gas before the price increase to nearly USD 1.31/0.26 US gal lqd
The current gasoline price is USD 1.30 VND/0.26 US gal lqd.
Vietnam uses liter units, with 1 liter = 0.26 US gal lqd.
If it increases by 30% as predicted by expert Michael Kokalari, the price of gasoline in Vietnam may approach the USD 1.75/0.26 US gal lqd mark.
“If this happens, Vietnam’s inflation is likely to increase by 1.5% due to high world oil prices, but we still forecast that Vietnam’s inflation for the whole year 2022 will still be below the 4% as planned of the Vietnamese Government,” said Mr. Michael Kokalari.
The retail price of gasoline in Vietnam is currently at:
Gasoline E5 RON 92 not more than USD 1.27/0.26 US gal lqd;
Gasoline RON 95 not more than USD 1.30/0.26 US gal lqd;
Diesel oil not more than USD 1.10/0.26 US gal lqd;
Kerosene not exceeding USD 1.05/0.26 US gal lqd;
and Mazut fuel oil not more than USD 0.92/kg.
The leader of Saigon Petro said that before the price increase period, retail businesses increased their imports, but now the amount of petroleum imports has decreased. And gas stations are no longer closed.
Currently, the discount price per liter of gasoline has inched up, about:
0.0087 – 0.017 USD/0.26 US gal lqd of gasoline;
and 0.026 – 0.035 USD/0.26 US gal lqd of oil.
This makes domestic retail businesses no longer lose, it makes a slight profit.
Certainly, gasoline prices will also continue to fluctuate this week according to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has not yet ended, according to oil market reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as possible EU sanctions on Russia.